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A Small Price for a Large Benefit

Business Strategy – Forecasts involving climate change are highly uncertain, denialists assert — a point that climate researchers themselves readily concede. The denialists view the uncertainty as strengthening their case for inaction, yet a careful weighing of the relevant costs and benefits supports taking exactly the opposite course.

A Small Price for a Large Benefit, myhusbandstolemyblog.com

http://myhusbandstolemyblog.com/

Organizers of the recent climate conference in Copenhagen sought, unsuccessfully, to forge agreements to limit global warming to 3.6 degrees Fahrenheit by the end of the century. But even an increase that small would cause deadly harm. And far greater damage is likely if we do nothing.

The numbers — and there are many to choose from — paint a grim picture. According to recent estimates from the Integrated Global Systems Model at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, the median forecast is for a climb of 9 degrees Fahrenheit by century’s end, in the absence of effective countermeasures.

That forecast, however, may underestimate the increase. According to the same M.I.T. model, there is a 10 percent chance that the average global temperature will rise more than 12.4 degrees by 2100, and a 3 percent chance it will climb more than 14.4 degrees. Warming on that scale would be truly catastrophic.

Scientists say that even the 3.6-degree increase would spell widespread loss of life, so it’s hardly alarmist to view the risk of inaction as frightening.

In contrast, the risk of taking action should frighten no one. Essentially, the risk is that if current estimates turn out to be wildly pessimistic, the money spent to curb greenhouse gases wouldn’t have been needed to save the planet. And yet that money would still have prevented substantial damage. (The M.I.T. model estimates a zero probability of the temperature rising by less than 3.6 degrees by 2100.)

Moreover, taking action won’t cost much. According to estimates by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, a tax of $80 a metric ton on carbon dioxide — or a cap-and-trade system with similar charges — would stabilize temperatures by midcentury.

This figure was determined, however, before the arrival of more pessimistic estimates on the pace of global warming. So let’s assume a tax of $300 a ton, just to be safe.

Under such a tax, the prices of goods would rise in proportion to their carbon footprints — in the case of gasoline, for example, by roughly $2.60 a gallon.

A sudden price increase of that magnitude could indeed be painful. But if phased in, it would cause much less harm. Facing steadily increasing fuel prices, for example, manufacturers would scramble to develop more efficient vehicles. Read more »

The Birth of Cheap Communication

Business Strategy – Would you pay a full day’s earnings just to receive an e-mail message from me? On those terms, I bet you wouldn’t welcome hearing from me very often.

The Birth of Cheap Communication, myhusbandstolemyblog.com

http://myhusbandstolemyblog.com/

In England in 1830, postage for letters was calculated not only by the number of sheets of paper but also by the number of miles traversed, and the recipient was the one who had to pay. For a person of ordinary means, a letter of middling length could come to about a day’s wages, a fearsome cost for the unfortunate household that received a letter.

But a decade or so later, when Britain and the United States introduced cheap, flat postal rates, without regard to the number of sheets or distance traveled, correspondents enjoyed something like our unmetered broadband today. Communication became more frequent, and ties were strengthened among families and friends. But cheap rates also led to junk mail and postal scams.

In Victorian London, though service wasn’t 24/7, it was close to 12/6. Home delivery routes would go by every house 12 times a day — yes, 12. In 1889, for example, the first delivery began about 7:30 a.m. and the last one at about 7:30 p.m. In major cities like Birmingham by the end of the century, home routes were run six times a day.

“In London, people complained if a letter didn’t arrive in a couple of hours,” said Catherine J. Golden, a professor of English at Skidmore College and author of “Posting It: The Victorian Revolution in Letter Writing” (2009).

And, not unlike us, most Victorian letter writers seemed more concerned about getting a rapid response than a long one. “Return of post” was an often-used phrase, requesting an immediate response, in time for the next scheduled delivery that day.

As any English major could tell you, the literary output of eminent Victorians was prodigious. Anthony Trollope, for example, wrote dozens of novels while working for the British post office, using the Victorian equivalent of a laptop computer: a portable writing desk. For his books, he didn’t stint on words: a modern reprint of “He Knew He Was Right,” with small type, runs 930 pages. But Ms. Golden said his letters tended to be brief and businesslike.

David M. Henkin, a history professor at the University of California, Berkeley, says that there has been “a distorted impression of how articulate or thoughtful 19th-century letter writers were — both American and British.”

“The historical letters we encounter were often written by famous, articulate people,” he added, “preserved by their recipients and selected for publication.”

When researching letters written by not-so-famous Americans, Mr. Henkin was struck by writing that was “prosaic, not poetic.”

In the early 1800s, before the postal reforms, Americans often sent letters that weren’t letters at all, but newspapers they had received in the mail and then resent to distant friends and family. Postal rates favored the practice, as newspapers could be remailed in their entirety for about what a single-sheet letter would cost — and the sender was spared the obligation of writing an actual letter.

In 1840, The New Orleans Picayune tried to persuade its subscribers to buy gift subscriptions instead of remailing their own copies of the paper, gently scolding that when “you send your friend all the news in a printed journal you have a very fair excuse for being lazy with your pen.” (Online readers should feel perfectly free to send this column to friends.) Read more »

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